Event description
How good are we at understanding randomness? Spoiler: not very. The human brain is wired to seek patterns, even where none exist. Why do we think a coin toss is "due" for heads after a streak of tails? Why do we play the lottery? In this talk, we’ll explore some aspects of modern probability theory that highlight the surprising ways our minds misinterpret Probability, Statistics, and Data Analysis. Moreover, these words are often—but wrongly—used interchangeably!
Probability provides the theoretical backbone for understanding uncertainty, statistics uses it to decide if certain bits of information can be found in the data, while data analysis focuses on practical tools to make sense of a huge volume of information. Using simple analogies, we’ll untangle these concepts and show why distinguishing between them and utilising them properly matters, as well as what can go wrong if one skips the harder part of the trio—Probability theory!
The talk is intended for a very wide audience, so no prior knowledge of probability, statistics or data analysis is assumed. There will also be a magic trick!